Future Temperature Projections in Iraq under SSP1-2.6: A PlaSim-Based Analysis (2026 – 2100)
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Iraq, one of the hottest regions in the world, faces unprecedented warming pressures that threaten water security and agricultural productivity. This study projects future temperature changes across Iraq using the PlaSim climate model under the SSP1-2.6 low-emissions scenario for three periods: Near-Future (2026–2050), Mid-Future (2051–2075), and Far-Future (2076–2100). The model is validated against ERA5 reanalysis data (1995–2024) and bias-corrected using the Additive Bias Correction method, achieving 80.9% Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) reduction (4.35-0.82 °C). Results show that temperature stabilizes at approximately (24.0–24.1 °C), representing a (+3.0–3.1 °C) increase above the historical baseline (1995-2024). Spatial analyses demonstrate north-south temperature differences of (8–12 °C), with northern mountains consistently cooler than southern lowlands. Prominent seasonal restructuring occurs: dramatic warming (+6–8 °C) during summer months, coupled with slight winter cooling (−1–2 °C). Uncertainty analysis indicates extremely low interannual variability ~2%, and 95% confidence intervals range only (1.7-2.1 °C), supporting SSP1-2.6. These findings emphasize that adaptation strategies must be tailored to Iraq's country-specific context, which is disproportionately affected by climate change due to its climate-sensitive water and agricultural sectors.
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